NATURE OF
DEMOGRAPHY
NATURE:
Demography is
defined as a study of human population including its size, distribution,
composition and the factors that determine changes in its size, distribution
and composition.
FOCUS OF DEMOGRAPHY:
1.
It focuses on the size.
2.
It focuses on the distribution.
3. It focuses on the
composition.
4. It focuses on the
population dynamics.
5.
It focuses on the socio economic determinants and consequences of the
population change.
SIZE:
The size has to do
with the number living within a given space (geographical territory) at a given
point in time. The sizes are also useful in terms of schools i.e. in admitting
students; in terms of work place i.e. employment etc.
DISTRIBUTION:
The arrangement of
population of people in a given space at a given time either geographically or
among different groups of people; no population is evenly (equally)
distributed; it is distributed unequally; some places will be highly populated
while others will be sparsely populated.
COMPOSITION:
The characteristics
of the people who form a given population i.e. in form of sex, gender (how many
are males and how many are females), what is the dominant occupation of a given
population. sex, gender, income, educational composition, occupational composition
of people in a given place there is also racial structure (composition) or in
form of residential i.e. urban and rural areas, religion, ethnic structure are
all parts of the composition of population.
POPULATION CHANGE (DYNAMIC):
Population change has
to do with the growth or decline of the total population of a given place; it
is characterized by changes.
Factors
that affects Change
·
Death
·
Birth
·
Marriages
·
Migration [+/-]
·
Mortality
·
Fertility
·
Mobility
DEFINITION
OF DEMOGRAPHY
Demography may be
defined as a scientific study of the
size, composition and distribution of human population and their changes resulting from mortality,
fertility, and migration. Demography is concerned with how large or small populations
are.
It is also
concerned with how small or large societies are, and it is concern with how populations
are distributed in physical space e.g. how urban or rural societies are.
Demography is also interested in
changes over time and the size composition and distribution of human population
and how these results from the process
of fertility, mortality and migration. Demography is concerned with
the description, analysis and understanding of population phenomenon.
DEFINITION
OF DEMOGRAPHY
U.N multi-lingual Demographic Dictionary; This defined demography as the scientific study of human population
primarily with respect to their size, structure and their development (change).
According to Peter R. Cox defined demography as the
study by statistical method of human population involving primarily the
measurement of the size and growth or diminution the numbers of people, the
properties living beings born or dying within the same area or region and the
related function of mobility, mortality and marriage (Note: The issue of distribution is not captured in this definition)
Houser and Duncan (1959); Demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution
and composition of population, changes varying, and the composition of such
changes, which may be identified as morbidity (life) mortality (death),
territorial movement (migration) and social mobility (change of status) .
Composition of population implies
1)
Such threats as sex, age
2)
Such life-circle attribute as educational level, marital and house hold
status
3)
Such variable characteristics as occupation, income, socio-economic status
etc.
Donald J. Bogue, (1969) Defined demography as the mathematical and
statistical study of the size, composition and spatial distribution of human
population and of changes over time in these aspect through the operations of
the 5 processes of fertility, mortality,
marriage, migration and social
mobility.
We can therefore
summarize the definition of demography as the dynamic and developing discipline
and it can be study either from its technical aspects which involves the
statistical analysis of the population size and its composition and factors
responsible from its growth and development (which is a narrow view of the
subject) or from the societal aspects which are concerned with the relationship
between demography processes, on the one hand and social economic, political,
biological factors on the other hand.
SCOPE OF DEMOGRAPHY
·
Micro Demography and
·
Macro Demography.
MICRO DEMOGRAPHY:
This is the study of
a growth distribution and redistribution of the population within community,
state, economics area and other local area. It studies small units like
individual, family, groups etc. these includes numerical (statistical) and
compositional aspect and it performed by using meaningful subdivision of
community or local area.
MACRO DEMOGRAPHY:
This deals with
such studies as the cause of rapid or slow growth of birth rate, death rate,
population growth, sex ratio and health conditions. Many economic issues like
unemployment, income condition, standard of living, labour condition and living
standard, production, consumption, saving habits, relationship between
population and economic development are all parts of macro demographic studies.
Also, social problems like mental status, family composition, growing trends
about education, religion etc. and problems of migration, urbanization, etc.
form of macro demography.
In the World Population Conferences held
by the United Nations ([UN) organization in 1954 & 1968, the following
topics were discussed.
1.
Fertility
2.
Mortality
3.
Migration
4.
Genetic Composition
5.
Future Prospects
6.
Population and Resources
7.
Techniques of Measurement
8.
Training of Demographers
9.
Distribution of Population
10.
Family Planning
11.
Population Projections
12.
Demographic aspects of housing, education, saving of investment.
This means that these are with the scope of
demography.
SUBJECT
MATTERS OF DEMOGRAPHY
Specifically, the
subject matters of demography covers;
1.
The size, composition and distribution of human population of a given
area at a specific point in time.
2.
Changes in population size and composition.
3.
The component of these changes particularly fertility, mortality, and
migration.
4.
The factors that affects these component of change.
5.
The consequences of changes in population size, composition and
distribution, all in the components themselves.
Broadly speaking therefore,
Demography looks at everything that influences population size, distribution
process and the influence that change in population has on other contemporary
issues.
A demographer
therefore, seeks to provide answers to the following types of questions.
1.
What is the number of people in each country, town, city, community and
what is the geographical distribution of these persons by various
characteristics?
2.
What are the current trends, levels and patterns of fertility or morality?
3.
Is the population increasing or decreasing and at what rate is the
population and how the population increases or decreases?
4.
What are the patterns of movement of the population and how is the
population being redistributed over time?
Thus, a demographer
is concerned with the careful, objective and systematic study of human
population.
RELEVANCE OF STUDYING DEMOGRAPHY
1.
To analyze the pattern that emerges from the population.
2.
To analyze the causes and consequences of population growth.
3.
To create social policies i.e. the pattern of mortality, birth,
migration, etc
4.
Provides policies that enhance economic policies.
5.
To shape population future by projection.
6.
Understanding the consequences of population growth in order to avoid
various undesirable happening and planning for the future.
Intellectually, the study of demography provides the necessary
tools for planning both on state and national level so also political planning,
plan for industries, plan for law and order, education and also planning for
health. Practically, the study for demography helps an individual in their
business (i.e. marketing), also for the creation of LGAs and States and even
seats in the parliament.
In summary, the data analyses
derived from Demographic studies rely upon a specialized set of models and
methods including population, composition studies, life table analysis
stimulation and mathematical models, survival and ratio. Demography lies at the
cross-roads of several other disciplines including economics, sociology,
political science and epidemiology.
EMERGENCE
OF DEMOGRAPHY
In 1962, the issues of population
become known by a scholar named John
Graunt (London); he is generally regarded as the father of Demography and
these achievements were a result of his publication (natural and political
observation made upon the bill) in 1962. The publication marks the beginning of
serious consideration of Demography. The history behind this, is that, in the
early 16th century, the city of London ordered that the number of deaths will
be recorded in every parish along with the number of christenings (births)
[children that have been named] beginning from 1592. It is the record that is referred
to as BILLS RECORD. These bills were
conducted by each PARISH CLERK recorded
at every end of the week will be recorded and circulated on weekly basis. "Note, the period of plague is also
referred to as period of epidemics" this plague motivated for the
bills of mortality; the cause of death is ordered to also be recorded and the
sex of the death not only the number of the deaths, the age of those dying is
also added in the 18century. The materials that were compiled from 1592 to1662
were all collected and studied by John Graunt.
In 1962, he
analysis the series of volume; Graunt is not a professor but a haberdasher; a
person who sells small articles of sewing, such as buttons, ribbons, zip etc.
after his analysis Graunt found the following.
1. In London of that
day, deaths exceeded births whereas in rural areas, the reverse is the case.
2. He discovers the Biological
phenomena that at birth the number of male infants exceeded the number of
female infants and that there is a distinctive age pattern of death.
3. He classifies
deaths by cause, and learned that the causes of varied from place to place and
from year to year example the highest causes of death in the city might be
accident.
4. He is credited from
accrued MORTALITY-TABLE that otherwise known as LIFE-TABLE. He
discovered from the life table you can predict your expectancy of living.
5. He undertook &
estimates the trends of growths and size of London's population and correctly identifies
mortality, fertility & migration as the components of growth.
6. He was able to
evaluate the data used in any research to learn the extent, types and probable
courses of errors and to devise adjustment and correction factors to remove
bias in statistical measures computed from the data.
7. He established as a
leading goal of population study the development of explanation for the underlined
regularities observe. He developed the act of explanation on every discovery
made.
These were the observation of john Graunt from an
unpromising material made from the BILL OF MORTALITY. He has a friend
called WILLIAM PETTY from a society of the influential. He discourse his
work with William Petty, his friend and he encourages Graunt with the work. He
was the one that circulated the work in the Royal Society. He
brought the work to the attention to the scientific world in 1970s. Petty’s
work (political arithmetik] was published in 1690. From the two works, Petty
generated many original and stimulating ideas
of...........................................?
The
empirical research of John Graunt supplement by the insight of William Petty marks
the emergence of demography as a scientific discipline. The influence of the
two men spread to France and later to Germany and other Europeans countries and
during the 18th century, there was an awakening of interest in population study.
This often led to the form of compiling of many facts as possible of the entire
nation and led to the Early Census of duration or the commencement of
the vital registration.
SOURCES OF
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (Information)
Demographic data
can be divided into 3 categories;
1.
Population size and distribution.
2.
Population processes (fertility, mortality, and migration).
3.
Population structure and characteristics (composition).
The major source of
data on size and distribution as well as structure and characteristics
(item 1 & 3
above) is POPULATION
CENSUS.
The major source of
Population Processes (item
2 above) is registration of
statistics (VITAL REGISTRATION) these can be supplement by data from
sample survey.
Demography obtains its data from 3 major sources;
1.
National Census.
2.
National Register of deaths, births, marriages, divorces and migration
otherwise known as VITAL REGISTRATION. and
3.
Sample surveys.
The above three (3) are called traditional
or conventional sources of demographic data. This means that there
are some sources that are categories as none traditional or conventional
sources.
None Conventional depends
on studies or research-specific, it can be territorial-specific. i.e. you want
materials on the criminals, you go to the police; they (none-conventional)
includes records on family planning, marriage registers; "NOTE"
CONVENTIONAL ARE FOUND IN THE PUBLIC LIBRARY WHILE THE NONE CONVENTIONAL ARE
FOUND IN THE AREAS IT AFFECTS for example; marriage registers are found in
courts etc. there are also immigration records, police records, school enrolment
registers, abstracts of statistic (registered by Federal Ministry of Statistics),
there is also records of employers of firms, citizen ID cards, citizens drivers
license, labour office records, hospital records that are found in specific
places.
At
international level, the U.N statistical Dept publishes yearly demographic and
statistical information from many parts of the world known as the U.N.
DEMOGRAPHIC YEAR BOOK, first published in 1948 and then yearly; it provides
internationally comparable and comprehensive annual statistics on population in
terms of its size, fertility, mortality, urbanization etc. which are put to a
wide range of uses by individuals, governments, institutions, private
organization and international agencies. The book is indeed a standard
reference on World Demography.
CONVENTIONAL
METHODS
Population
Census:
According to U.N.
1965 census is defined as the total process of collecting, compiling and
publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining to a specified time
to all persons in a country or delineated territory (part of a country).
Major Characteristics
of Census
Ø Government
sponsorship i.e. Census is a massive
program and also cost-intensive operation and as such, it can only be only be
handled by government. It is the government that has the legal authority and
also administrative authority.
Ø Defined Territory; people know the boundary, there is no conflict
over the territory e.g. Bakassi.
Ø Universality; Census involves every indigene, both old, and
young, males and females in a defined territory; it must include everybody.
Ø Simultaneity; the total population enumeration it took place at
the same time in all location, e.g. at 8pm in the in every locations, every
census office must be at the first house in that time, everywhere in Nigeria
in order to check other duplication. If Census is done in phases, people will
move from one place to another for another phase.
Ø Periodicity; Census take place at an interval of 10 years (interval
basis) as recommended by the United Nation. Census is conducted period by
period Census need to be conducted on a fixed sequence not like this time you
conducted after 5years, next time after 10years, 8years etc. it must be fixed
sequence; if its 10years, it should be maintained at that 10 years.
RELEVANCE
OR IMPORTANCE OF CENSUS
1)
It help in planning, taking some specific decisions.
2)
Census depicts the main characteristics of labour force.
3)
Growth and growth rate could be asserted through Census.
4)
From Census, economic issues could be determined.
5)
From Census, we can establish ethnic groups and how many are they in a
given geographical areas.
6)
It helps in manpower development i.e. know the number of employed and
unemployed.
7)
Census can be used in economic and social development.
8)
It is essential for assessment for human resources and human needs i.e.
when you know the number of a given number of a people, you can provide the
necessary needs of that people.
Basically, Census among other things, help
planners, government, policy makers to know the number people they are planning
for; this means that in order to function properly, National Government must
periodically takes National Population Census; take an inventory (i.e. human
resources inventory).
Every country need
to know how many people are they and how many are they in every kind i.e.
males, females olds, children etc. and where they are found. Without a
population count of this nature; a picture of low population is distributed and
other population facts, government administrators are unable to appreciate currents
and impending problem of population.
Therefore,
the primary important of Census is to know the number, distribution and
socio-demographic characteristics of people because such pieces of information
are necessary to facilitate socio-economic development planning.
Thus,
a popular Census is of great relevant to economic, political and social
development of a country. Population Census also is the major source of benchmark
(standard) data on the size, structure, distribution of a country's population requirement
for both planning and research.
NATURE OF CENSUS
DATA
1)
The kind of data needed during Census is a function of national needs.
2)
International comparability.
3)
Public reaction to the question can influence Census data.
4)
Respondent’s interest to cooperate is another factor that influences Census
data.
5)
Manpower affects the nature of Census data.
6)
Financial and Processing Resource Agency can affects Census data also.
The following items
are standard in every Census of the world.
A.
The geographic items.
Q1. What
is the location at time of Census and/or place of usual residence?
B.
Household or family information
Q1. What
is the relationship to the head of the household; to know how many biological
children belongs to that household.
C.
Personal characteristics of respondents
Q1. What
is the sex? i.e. male or female.
Q2. Age
Q3. Marital
status as at the time of Census
Q4. Place
of birth
Q5. Citizenship
D.
Economic Characteristics
Q1. What
type of economic activities you are engaged into?
Q2. What
is your occupation?
Q3. What
industry? i.e. is it a banking industry, or is it a manufacturing or textile
industry.
Q4. Status
in that organization i.e. are you an employee or an employer?
E.
Cultural characteristics.
Q1. Language,
what is your language?
Q2. Ethnic
or national characteristics
F.
Fertility
Q1. Total
live born (children ever born)
Q2. Children
currently living
G.
Educational Characteristics.
Q1. Literacy;
can you read and write in any language.
Q2. Level
of education, this has to do with formal education.
Q3. School
attendance (in some countries)
U.N lists the above
items as the minimum essentials for any Census. Most nations however may desire
to go beyond these and collect additional data. The needs for this additional
information may be urged by government, private or business organization.
EXECUTING A
SCIENTIFIC CENSUS
Before executing
any scientific Census, there involve three activities namely;
1. Pre-Census
activities
2. Activities during Census
and
3. Post-Census
activities.
It is important to NOTE that the U.N recommends
that before any Census is conducted; the country involved must have taken a
minimum of 36 months (3years) of planning before Census is executed.
PRE-CENSUS ACTIVITIES
1.
System of Enumerations; think of the system first. it involve the
following.
a.
De-facto: in this, people are enumerated wherever they are found and are been
count there.
b.
De-jure: in this, people are counted at their usual place of residence.
2.
Enumeration Area Demarcation; this is also seen as the total activities, it
involves;-
a.
E.A (Enumeration Area)
b.
S.A (supervisory area)
Enumeration Area is
an area that is given to enumerators in phases, segment etc. the entire country
needs to be enumerated into E.As; usually 4 E.As under one S.A depending on the
size of the place. Every E.A must have enumeration area map.
3.
Recruitment of Census Personnel; recruit those that are educationally competent,
the minimum is OND. U.N recommends to recruit teachers or undergraduate students;
the physical maturity of the person to be recruited; he shouldn’t be an infant,
emotionally sound, people whose temperament could be checked people; of integrity
(morally sound) are also important in the recruitment stage.
4.
Training; massive training of enumerators, supervisors etc. all personnel must
be subjected to training. They need to be trained on how to conduct the
training. They need to be trained on cultural compliance etc. even their dressing;
they need to be trained the way they responds to people’s reaction and so on. The
quality of training determines the quality of the Census.
5.
Fixing of Date for Census; the date must not be fixed at the heights of
festivity or at the high of seasons i.e. raining season, hamattan season and so
on or at the height of festivity like Sallah day, Christmas day etc. it is
important to NOTE the timing of the previous Census in order to make comparison
6.
Decision on the type of the questionnaire; this is in order to know whether the Census will succeed
or not. The way a question is formed is very important because question can be ambiguous
(ambiguous in the sense that if a single question has a different interpretation
by the various respondents) question must be so worded in such a way the
questions is unambiguous. also the arrangement.
a.
Number of the question to be asked.
b.
Wording of the questions to be unambiguous.
c.
Arrangement of the question in such a way the responds will be flowing.
d.
There is need for pre-test of the questionnaire before Census, there
are series of pre-tests. According to U.N there must hold 2 pre-test before Census.
In protest, it takes place in a special
geographical location i.e. extremist revering or mountainous location in order
to get the feeling and reaction of such people. The range of question asked at Census
is the result of last pre-test which is also called TRIAL CENSUS.
7.
Inform the public and obtain their Cooperation; massive enlighten campaign; some people have the
perception that the more children they have, is the more tax they will pay, and
as such they hide the exact number of their children which is the need to
enlighten the public about the importance of Census, educate maiunguwa, the
village heads so that they called the town criers to informed the people about
the Census activities. There is need to get rid of the negative perception the
people have on Census; people must be aware of the Census activities before the
Census day.
8.
Test all the arrangements and also the final pre-test or the trial Census.
9.
Plan for processing of data.
CENSUS
PERIOD (Field enumeration)
Census day starts
at exactly 12mid-night on that day of the Census. At 12mid-night, insane people
are located and counted. During Census, enumerators can obtain Census data in
two ways, namely;
1.
Direct approach.
2.
Householder approach.
In Direct enumeration, a large number of
enumerators are recruited, trained and send to field, assign to particular area
to obtain by direct personal interviews; information about every person living
within the assigned boundary. In each of the household, a reliable informant
will be identified, and relied on for the formation needed and asked him/her.
Householder approach, Census questionnaire is
mailed or delivered by hand for each household or living quarter and the
household head is saddle with the responsibility for reporting for everybody in
the household, this is used in developed societies.
Problems of
Census in Developing Societies
1)
Ignorance
2)
Lack of full cooperation
3)
Level of illiteracy
4)
Understanding of government policies and programmes
5)
Irregularities i.e. over-enumeration and under-numeration
6)
Politicization
7)
Accessibility i.e. some houses are not accessible, some people live in
poorly topographic areas and might be omitted during Census period.
8)
Poor infrastructural facilities like good roads etc.
9)
Poor preparation example in the case of Nigeria, General Census is
holding in 2018 and according to U.N. there must be 36months (3years)
preparation before Census is conduct but there is no any preparation.
VITAL
REGISTRATION
This consist of continue
of registration of some vital events like births, deaths, marriages, divorce
etc. information about vital events are usually collected by means of
compulsory registration for such event within a short time after occurrence.
U.N defines vital registration as follows;
The continues and permanent,
compulsory recording of the occurrence and the characteristics of vital
events primarily for their value as legal documents as provided by law and
secondarily for their usefulness as a source of statistic.
Characteristics of Vital Registration
1.
Vital registration is a national event.
2.
It is a continuous registration event unlike Census which is done on
fixed date.
3.
The event is permanent one; there must be permanent structures in
place.
4.
It is a compulsory event.
5.
Vital Registration certificate is a legal document.
6.
Universality; it affects
everybody, everybody is involved.
Vital Registration is the responsibility of the
government or its agency. The National Population Commission is saddled with
the responsibility of the vital registration and also Census.
The vital registration must have a system or a
structure in place consisting of offices and appoints a registrar.
SYSTEM OF VITAL REGISTRATION (APPROACH OF VITAL
REGISTRATION)
There are two
systems of vital registration;
1.
Active method (active system of vital registration).
2.
Passive method (passive system of vital registration).
Active method is a system in which an office is
created and registrars are appointed who go to the field and collect the date.
Passive system on the other hand, is a system in
which an office is created and the registrars are appointed but they wait for
people to come to them for the registration instead of them going to the field
to collect the data like the active vital registration.
NATURE OF VITAL STATISTICS
The registration of
births, deaths, marriages etc. involve lodging of a standard form which give
some certain essential information. The form includes the following:
FORM OF BIRTH HAS THE FOLLOWING
1.
Characteristics of the Child; i.e. date of birth, date of registration, sex,
types of birth, the legitimacy of the child either within wed-lock or outside
wed-lock, place of birth is also very important.
2.
Characteristics of the Parent; i.e. such as date of birth (age of the parent),
names of the parents, date of marriage, occupation of the parents, usual place
of residence, names and age of the previous children born to the mother; name
of the medical personnel that attended the birth of the child.
FORM OF DEATH HAS THE FOLLOWING:
Death registrations
forms usually records the name , age, sex, marital status of the deceased,
occupation, place of birth, date of deaths; cause of death.
MARRIAGE REGISTRATION FORMS INCLUDES:
1.
Date of birth of the couples.
2.
Occupation of the couples.
3.
Religion of the couples.
4.
Birth place of the couples.
5.
Place of usual residence of the couples.
6.
Previous marital status of the couples.
7.
Dates and place of the marriage.
DIVORSE DATA REGISTRATION FORMS HAS THE FOLLOWING:
1.
Date of divorce.
2.
Date of birth of partners (ages).
3.
Date of marriages.
4.
Number of children before divorce.
5.
Occupation of partners.
6.
Place of usual residence before divorce.
MIGRATION DATA REGISTRATION FORMS HAS THE
FOLLOWING:
This is the responsibility
of the Nigerian Immigration Officers unlike others where it is the registrar
that is saddled with the responsibilities;
1.
Age
2.
Sex
3.
Mental status
4.
Occupation
5.
Nationality
6.
Purpose of the visit
7.
Information of the length of time of staying
ROLE OF VITAL REGISTRATION
Ø
As a Legal Document
Ø
As a Sources of (Birth Certificate)
As A Legal Document
1.
Prove the right to tour name.
2.
To prove citizenship and nationality or
place in the society where the issues and privileges and rights are challenges.
3.
Prove for establishing family relationship
i.e. setting inheritance, arranging for transfer of property, insurance claim.
4.
Apply for drivers licenses (it need prove
of age in order to get a driver’s licensed).
5.
Social security benefits (i.e. pension).
6.
Application to carry fire arms can be
approved when you presented to age (birth certificate) for self defense.
7.
We need birth certificate to apply for
marriage without parental approval especially in developed countries.
8.
Exercising of voting rights requires a
certain age.
9.
Life assurance policies.etc.
10.Some certain medical
service like surgery.etc.
11.It is useful for
evaluating effectiveness of some government programmes.
PROBLEMS OF VITAL REGISTRATION
1.
Poor system of vital registration.
2.
Model of vital registration that is in
place we are still using passive where the registrar is sitting in his office
waiting for the date to come instead of active where he went out and collect
the data
3.
The system is not publicized; proportionate
numbers of people are not aware which is why people are not registering.
4.
There is no motivation; people are not
motivated, i.e. people are asked to pay for the registration.
5.
The fine for not compliance is not
enforced that is there is no sanction.
6.
Inaccessibility of the registration
offices; the offices are not known by the public especially in the rural areas.
7.
The rural people in particular are
ignorant of the use of Vital Registration.
8.
There are alternative legal document e.g.
sworn declarations of age etc., instead of taking children for register.
9.
Socio economic effects i.e. births and
deaths ceremony.
DEMOGRAPHIC SAMPLE SURVEY
Sample
survey is a sub-set of a population or part of the population of an area
carefully selected in such a way is a representative of the entire population
and possible to make generalization of the entire population.
Sample surveys of population are the
utilized to provide more detailed information which cannot be collected at the
full enumeration of the population. Sample survey is employed to arrive at
estimate at demographic characteristic, size, mortality, migration,
distribution and fertility.
Importance of Sample Survey: it generates data on subject that will be
generalized.
Example of Sample Survey: Post-Enumeration Survey [P.E.S.] which is
conducted shortly after National Census and to ascertain the sources of error.
Others example includes:
1.
Nigerian demographic and health survey
[NDHS] which is conducted in 5years interval by the National Population
Commission.
2.
National HIV survey usually conducted by
NACA etc.
Uses of Sample Survey
1.
Collect vital statistics where the
official registration system is inadequate or non existence.
2.
To collect supplementary and demographic
and other data where it is not feasible to collect the same from the population
census.
3.
To test the accuracy of traditional and
conventional sources of demographic data.
4.
To conduct sample Census.
Generally, the quantity
of statistics depends largely on the sample and the design of the sample and
the way the study carried out.
Ways to Check Error
A
sample needs to be reasonable in size because the larger the sample, the more
we can rely on the sample.
Also the sample needs to
be taken at random (probability method) in the selection of states, E.A. etc.
that is anyone have equal chance of being selected in other to generalize the
result.
others sources of
demographic data is population registers; population registers are registers
that is open to an individual, it is very hard to maintained this, it was tried
in Sweden, china, Switzerland, Norway etc.
PERSPECTIVES IN DEMOGRAPHY
Introduction
Population
and its dynamics are very critical in understanding social changes in all
societies. Population induces changes are very far reaching effects on:
a)
Economic development.
b)
Peace and comfort of society.
c)
Socio-economic wellbeing of a society.
There
is a change, and it is very rapid and the change is not evenly felt in the
society. NOTE; it took hundred and thousand years for the world
to reach one billion; it took 100years to reach 2billion and also it took...
etc
The problem is not that
the population is growing rapidly but also the dynamics within countries i.e.
developed and undeveloped countries example in some countries in Western Europe
are afraid that their population is decreasing while others are increasing
rapidly. In 1950 half of the 10th most populous countries were
industrialized countries but in 2050, demographer predicts that USA will be the
only most populous country in the industrialized society. Also in [1950] over
28% of the world's population lived in America and Europe, but today 16%of the
world population and by 2050 it will be 12%.
The implication is that by 2050, 88% will be in developing countries
which have nothing compared with developed countries where they will have only
12% of the population in view of the above demographer developed theories to
explain this problem;
1.
Demographic Transition Theory.
2.
Malthusian Perspectives.
3.
Marxist Perspective.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
This
is a term that was first used by warren S. Thompson (1929) and later on by
Frank W. Notestein 1945. They use it to refer to historical process of change
which account to the trends in births, deaths, and population growth that
occurred in today's industrialized societies especially European societies.
This process of demographic change began on the most part of 18th
century.
Demographic Transition is
not a law of population growth that is, shouldn’t be used as a law of
population growth but as a generalized description of the evolutionary process.
In other word, it is a theory which is attempted to specify general laws for
human population change in size and structures during industrialization.
Demographic Transition Theory is
frequently accepted as a useful tool of describing the demographic history of a
country. the Theory postulates a particular pattern of Demographic change from
a high fertility and high mortality, to a low fertility and low mortality when
a society process from a largely rural, agrarian and illiterate society to a
dominant urban, industrialized, literate and modern society.
The Demographic Transition as a
theoretical model is used typical to describe a state of major changes in
births and death rates that have occurred almost completely in urban
industrialized nations in the last 200years. It is typically demonstrated
through a demographic transition model. The theory is based on an
interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by an American
demographer Warren S. Thompson (1887-1973). Thompson observes changes or
transitions in births and death rates in industrialized societies over the
previous 200years and developed a framework for the model (changes observes).
Demographers use the term Demographic Transition to describe the changes in
birth rate and death rates during stages of a country's development resulting
in new patterns of vital statistics.
Demographic Transition Theory
describes the evolution of a country from a stage of high birth rate and high
death rate through a stage of high birth rate and low death rate to a stage of
low birth rate and low death rate.
Demographic Transition
Theory is typically viewed as a 3 stage process;
1.
That the decline of mortality comes first
before the decline in fertility.
2.
That the fertility eventually declines to
match mortality.
3.
That socio-economic transformation of a
society takes place simultaneously with its demographic transformation.
Demographic transition
theory is characterized by configures transition stages; the transition from
high birth rates and death rates to low rates; that can be divided in 3stages,
however, some scholars have divided it into 4 or 5 stages as follows:
1.
Pre-transition Stage: characterized by high
and fluctuating births and death rates with little population growth.
2.
Transition Stage: characterized by high
birth rates with rapid population growth [stage of many developing countries].
3.
Post-transition Stage: characterized by low
birth and death rate with slow population growth (stages of developed countries).
4.
Stabilization Stage: characterized by birth
and death both decline appreciably loading to zero stage (stage of highly
industrialized societies).
STAGE 1:
This stage
conforms to pre-industrial, agricultural era and it is regarded as the pre-transitional
stage in the history of societies both birth rate and death rates were high.
The birth rate is high because children were value as sources of labour and
also due to lack of effective birth control measures.
While death rates
is high because of low standard of living and lack of medical facility to stems
the spread of diseases. Other factors are counted as high fertility was early
marriages and low cost of child upbringing while the prevalence of epidermis
and natural disaster also kept mortality high. Birth and death rate at this
stage were almost uniform leading relatively to stable population.
STAGE 2:
This stage is regarded as the
transitional stage. As societies enters stage two (2) which coincided with the
unset of the industrial era, improve medical techniques, sanitations, increased
of food production all these lead to reduction of death rates, this is the
stage of industrial revolution (18thcentury).
However, desire
for children, reduction of infant mortality and from high to medium fertility
rate, resulted in significant population growth. This stage commenced in Europe
during agricultural revolution of the 18thcentury. The sources
reports that in the 20thcentury the falls in death rates in the
developing countries tended to be substantially faster. Countries in this
transition stage include; Yemen, Afghanistan, Palestinian territories,
sub-Saharan African countries and lots more are suddenly in stage
"2".
STAGE 3:
This is the
post-transitional stage, societies have fully developed industrial economy, the
standard of living is high and children are no longer needed as workers for
building family incomes, during this stage; birth rates falls due to increased
use of effective birth control measures and high standard of living. The death
rates remain low (at this stage, there is class consciousness; people are
thinking of high cost of living i.e. people want to become something and as
such, they divert their attention (mind) from producing children to class
aspiration).
Infant and child
mortality decline, making couples confident that fewer could suffice to care
for them in old age, the industrial economy means that children are not longer
needed for economic activities, these coupled with high contraceptive
prevalence that keeps fertility low. On the other hand, rapid advances in
medical technology, improved sanitary conditions, preventive measures against
killer diseases and reduced mortality low. The low birth and death produced a
stable population in which growth occurs slowly. according to some authors,
some stage "3" countries may even experienced zero population growth
that is the point at which nearly equal birth and death rates produce a broad
rate of zero; i.e. Germany, Italy etc.
STAGE 4:
This is also
known as stabilization stage, it occurs where both birth and death rates are
low leading to a total population which is low and stable. Death rates are low
because of so many reasons primarily, lower rate of diseases and higher
production of food. The birth rate is low because many people are opportune to
choose if they want children which are made possible by improvement in
contraception or women getting more independent and work opportunities. During
stage "4" population growth stabilizes as birth rates falls in the
line with death rates. In some cases birth rates may even drop below the
replacement level resulting in shrinking population; e.g. most countries in
Europe, Canada, Latin American countries, china, Thailand etc. are in stage
"4".
STAGE 5:
Some people
argued that there is stage "5". This is the stage at which both death
and birth rates decline seriously
MALTHUSIAN THEORY
MALTHUSIAN belongs to anti-natalism or
anti-natalist theory. According to Malthus, there is need for moral constraint
in order to check population. This means that one must restrain himself from
women. One has to have all the essentials need for life before getting married.
Malthus was
against the welfare system where if a person cannot take good care of his
family. He says the poor should not be helped; let them work hard; they must
learn to be not poor.
Malthus belief
that a natural consequence of population growth was poverty, since the increase
in food supply cannot contained with the natural urge to reproduce. He
contended the urge to reproduce always forces population pressure to precede
the demand for labour. Thus, over population will forced wages down to the
point where people could not afford to marry and raised a family at such low
wages with a surplus of labour and the need for each person to work just to
earn a subsistence wage, cultivators could employ more labour, put more acres
of land into population and thus, increase the means of subsistence. Malthus
belief that this circle of increased food resources, leading to population
growth, leading to too many people for available resources, leading them back
to poverty was part of natural law of population. Each increase in food supply
only means that eventually, more people could live in poverty. Malthus
essentially blame poverty on the poor themselves because he belief that most
human creators were too "inert" too "sluggish" and "averse" for labour,
to try to harness the urge to reproduce and avoid the increase in number that
will lead back to poverty whenever more resources were available.
However,
according to Malthus, within that poverty though, is the STIMULUS FOR ACTION that can lift people out of misery.
If people remain poor, it is their own fault for not trying to do something
about it. For that reason, Malthus was opposed to the ''ENGLISH POOR LAW'' (i.e. welfare benefits for the poor)
because he felt that they (the Laws) would actually serve to perpetuate miserly, they
permitted poor people to be supported by others and thus not feel that great pain,
the avoidance of which might lead to birth prevention. Malthus argues that if
every man had to provide for his own children, he would be more prudent about
getting marriage and raising a family.
NOTE: "within
poverty, there is stimulus for action; if one is wise enough. Poverty has a
capacity to make you think when you see others enjoying wealth. He said that
the street made lot of people rich and lots others criminals e.g. 50cent was a
product of the street; poverty has a way of making people creative. For the
above reason, he concludes that the poor were responsible for their own poverty
because even within poverty, there is stimulus to motivate them to work
hard but they refused.
However, to Malthus, the only acceptable means of preventing a
birth was to exercise "MORAL
RESTRAINT" which is to postpone marriages, remained "Chaste" in a mean
time until a man feels secure that, should he have a large family? His outmost exertions (struggle\sweat) can save them from "rags" and "squalid'' poverty, and
their consequent degradation in the community; his recommendations are:
1.
Post-pone Marriage.
2.
Remain Chaste.
3.
Until secure enough to raised
a family.
Any other means of birth control including contraception, either
before or after marriage, abortion infanticide (killing of infants), or any
other improper means according to Malthus was viewed as ''VICE'' that would lower the dignity of human nature.
Moral restraints
were a very important point to Malthus because he belief that, if people were
allowed to prevents birth by improper means (prostitution, contraception,
abortions etc), they will expand the energies in ways that are not economically
productive. Borrowing from John Locke, Malthus argued that ''the endeavor to avoid pain rather than to pursue pleasure is the
great stimulus for action in life". Pleasure will not stimulate
activity until its absent is defined in being painful.
Malthus suggested
that a well educated, rational person will perceive in advance, the pain in
having hungry children or being in debt and would post-pond marriage and
sexual-intercourse until he was sure that he could avoid that pain. If that
motivation existed and the percentage check is operating, than the miserable
consequence of population growth could be avoided.
CRITICISMS
There are three major criticisms against Malthus, these are:
1.
Food production could not keep
up with the population growth: Because the advent of technology and mechanized
farming, Malthus does not foresee the coming of the mechanized farming where
the food production will be higher than the population, he only use the local
implements of production, shifting cultivation and so on
2.
The conclusion that poverty
was an inevitable result of population growth and;
3.
Believe that moral restraints
were the only acceptable preventive check.
MARXIST DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE
Marxist
theory of population is also commonly known as the Socialist Theory of population. The
theory is drive from the work of Karl Marx and his collaborator or friend
"Frederic Engels".
Marx developed his theory primarily
in response to Malthus views in population. However, his ideas are extended to
encompass analysis of the relationship between population and capitalism. Marx
and Engels have no issues with preventing birth; never the less, there were
skeptical about Malthus’s postulate that population growth would outstrip food
production. On the contrary, they viewed human activity as the product of a
particular social and economic environment.
The basic Marxist perspective is
that each society at a point in history has its own laws of population that determines
the consequences of population growth. For capitalism, the consequences are
over population and poverty while for socialism, population growth is readily
absorbed by the economy with no side effect.
Marx rejected as baseless the
Malthusian that population growth leads to poverty instead that capitalism with
its exploitative institutions and its apparatus was responsible for human
suffering and poverty. Marx and Engels views large population as a factor for
increased productivity since every worker produce more than his/her immediate
needs. By implication, the large amount of surpluses created could lead to
immerse wealth if properly and equitably disposed or distributed. They also opined
that, capitalism works by using labour of the working class to earn profits or
capital to buy machines that will replace the laborers. This means that poor
were not poor because they over ran the food supply but capitalists had first
taken away part of their wages and then taken away their jobs and replace them
with machines.
Thus, the consequences of population
as discussed by Malthus were actually the consequences of capitalism.
Over population in capitalist
society was a result of bourgeoisie’s desire for a large labour force that will
keep wages low via competition for jobs as well as compel workers to be
excessively productive to keep their Jobs. To Marx then, the solution to the
problem of population is radical overthrow of capitalism and equitable
re-organization of society on socialist principles. they belief that a growing
population bears the seed of destruction of capitalism because the massive
unemployment that accompanies it would lead to discontent, disaffection,
agitations, restiveness and eventually revolution.
COMPONENTS OF POPULATION
1.
Fertility.
2.
Mortality and
3.
Migration
FERTILITY is the actual bearing of children. In other word, fertility is
reproductive outcome; it is measured by live births not still births. Fertility
is different from fecundity;
Fertility is reproductive outcome but
fecundity is the reproductive potentials (physiological capacity of a woman to
bear children) fecundity is biological while fertility is social.
The outcome of fertility is
pregnancy; pregnancy can be terminated, it’s called spontaneous abortion (miss
carriage) but when it is willingly aborted, it is called criminal abortion.
CONCEPTS ASSOCIATED WITH
FERTILITY
Ø
Age of Menarche: the period of bearing
children 15years to 45years.
Ø
Age of Menopause: the period were a woman
reaches the limit of bearing children e.g. 45years
Ø
Life Birth: measured by the carrying
of a baby immediately after birth.
Ø
Still Birth: opposite of life birth.
Ø
Induced/Criminal Abortion: When a child is
intentionally aborted.
Ø
Spontaneous/miss-carriage: When a child is
un-intentionally aborted
To
what extent is fertility a component of population change? There are some
factors that are responsible for fertility.
Nigeria Disparity Rate
1.
North Central = 5.7
2.
North East =
7.0
3.
North West =
6.7
4.
South East =
4.1
5.
South South = 4.6
6.
South West = 4.1
AT GLOBAL LEVEL
1)
LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT: level of fertility
responses to the level of development. It is negatively related to development
level of development. It is negatively related to development level (i.e. when
one is high, the other is low).
2)
Education: is also a factor in
global disparity it is also negatively related i.e. the higher the level of
education, the lower the level of fertility. The level of education is high in
developed societies and low in developing society. Education can make people
postpone marriage and child bearing. Education exposes people to family
planning or to plan your fertility.
Education exposes woman to other choices of
social symbol: i.e. the pride of illiterate woman is child bearing but educated
woman has other sources of status symbol e.g. her certificate as a symbol other
than bearing children. Educated woman engage themselves in formal occupation
where it is highly regulated and has limits.
Education
disparity table of a Woman according to NHDS
a)
No formal Education 6.7 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)
b)
With Primary Education 6.3 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)
c)
With Secondary Education 4.7 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)
d)
With Tertiary Education 2.8 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)
3)
CULTURE: This is a serious factor
in fertility; it has to do with traditional beliefs, traditional values with
regards to children and child bearing. culture also has to do with religious
beliefs and religious teachings; the values attached to children is very high
which resulted to high fertility because children are seen as more hands for
labour; for status, generational flow of wealth etc. all are reasons why children
are attached to high value in the traditional societies, in developed
societies, people do not wait for children to grow up and take care of them
instead, they invest and plan for their children.
Cultural ceremonies motivate other women to bear
more children in traditional societies. Culture also includes some of religious
believes (e.g. ............). there is also a value attached to a woman not
able to bear children, there is accusation on them and in some typical
traditional societies where they value children a lot, it result to brutal
killing of a woman not able to bear children, telling her before or after they
killed her that do not come back to this world again barren.
4)
AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE: This is also
another factor; it is negatively related or associated to fertility.
5)
STATUS OF A WOMAN: this is measure by her
education, formal occupation; a society where the status of a woman is high
especially in education and formal occupation, the will be low fertility
because he has other means social status rather than just having children like
the illiterate woman or in the traditional societies.
6)
HEALTH STATUS OF A
SOCIETY: this
is another factor and is measured by the availability of health institutions,
it is also measured by level of equipment, by availability of drugs that can
avert deaths, cure diseases etc. it is also measured by self awareness i.e.
sanitation, health awareness etc. it is measured by the availability of health
personnel e.g. trained laboratory attendants, nurses, doctors etc. the
implication is that, if you ask people to give birth to three (3) children for
example, they can live for long because of the well equipped medical facilities
and equipment - this is because people have the assurance that if their
children are sick, they can be taken to the hospital and taken care of. If a
society do not have enough health facilities, they will bear as much children
as they could believing that if some died, some will survive and cater for them
when they became old, but if they have assurance that if the give birth to few
and survive, they will not give birth to many children.
7)
THE USE AND NONE-USE OF
CONTRACEPTIVE: Is also another factor to fertility, Contraceptive have the following
components which are:
a)
Availability: this has to do with the
medical personnel
b)
Acceptability: this has to do with the
individual concerns, and
c)
Affordability: has to do with the
government subsidizing the contraceptive so that everyone can afford it at a
cheaper rate.
8)
SEX PREFERENCE: this is also another
factor that affects fertility
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