COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE/DYNAMICS

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION

1.     Fertility.

2.     Mortality and

3.     Migration

FERTILITY is the actual bearing of children. In other word, fertility is reproductive outcome; it is measured by live births not still births. Fertility is different from fecundity;

            Fertility is reproductive outcome but fecundity is the reproductive potentials (physiological capacity of a woman to bear children) fecundity is biological while fertility is social.

            The outcome of fertility is pregnancy; pregnancy can be terminated, it’s called spontaneous abortion (miss carriage) but when it is willingly aborted, it is called criminal abortion.

CONCEPTS ASSOCIATED WITH FERTILITY

Ø Age of Menarche: the period of bearing children 15years to 45years.

Ø Age of Menopause: the period were a woman reaches the limit of bearing children e.g. 45years

Ø Life Birth: measured by the carrying of a baby immediately after birth.

Ø Still Birth: opposite of life birth.

Ø Induced/Criminal Abortion: When a child is intentionally aborted.

Ø Spontaneous/miss-carriage: When a child is un-intentionally aborted

To what extent is fertility a component of population change? There are some factors that are responsible for fertility.   

Nigeria Disparity Rate

1.     North Central          = 5.7

2.     North East                = 7.0

3.     North West              = 6.7

4.     South East                = 4.1

5.     South South             = 4.6

6.     South West              = 4.1

FACTORS INFLUENCING FERTILITY AT GLOBAL LEVEL

1)    LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT: level of fertility responses to the level of development. It is negatively related to development level of development. It is negatively related to development level (i.e. when one is high, the other is low).

2)    Education: is also a factor in global disparity it is also negatively related i.e. the higher the level of education, the lower the level of fertility. The level of education is high in developed societies and low in developing society. Education can make people postpone marriage and child bearing. Education exposes people to family planning or to plan your fertility.

Education exposes woman to other choices of social symbol: i.e. the pride of illiterate woman is child bearing but educated woman has other sources of status symbol e.g. her certificate as a symbol other than bearing children. Educated woman engage themselves in formal occupation where it is highly regulated and has limits.

Education disparity table of a Woman according to NHDS

a)     No formal Education                     6.7 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)

b)    With Primary Education               6.3 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)

c)     With Secondary Education          4.7 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)

d)    With Tertiary Education               2.8 TFR (Total Fertility Rate)

3)    CULTURE: This is a serious factor in fertility; it has to do with traditional beliefs, traditional values with regards to children and child bearing. culture also has to do with religious beliefs and religious teachings; the values attached to children is very high which resulted to high fertility because children are seen as more hands for labour; for status, generational flow of wealth etc. all are reasons why children are attached to high value in the traditional societies, in developed societies, people do not wait for children to grow up and take care of them instead, they invest and plan for their children.

Cultural ceremonies motivate other women to bear more children in traditional societies. Culture also includes some of religious believes (e.g. ............). there is also a value attached to a woman not able to bear children, there is accusation on them and in some typical traditional societies where they value children a lot, it result to brutal killing of a woman not able to bear children, telling her before or after they killed her that do not come back to this world again barren.

4)    AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE: This is also another factor; it is negatively related or associated to fertility.

5)    STATUS OF A WOMAN: this is measure by her education, formal occupation; a society where the status of a woman is high especially in education and formal occupation, the will be low fertility because he has other means social status rather than just having children like the illiterate woman or in the traditional societies.

6)    HEALTH STATUS OF A SOCIETY: this is another factor and is measured by the availability of health institutions, it is also measured by level of equipments, by availability of drugs that can avert deaths, cure diseases etc. it is also measured by self awareness i.e. sanitation, health awareness etc. it is measured by the availability of health personnel e.g. trained laboratory attendants, nurses, doctors etc. the implication is that, if you ask people to give birth to three (3) children for example, they can live for long because of the well equipped medical facilities and equipments - this is because people have the assurance that if their children are sick, they can be taken to the hospital and taken care of. If a society do not have enough health facilities, they will bear as much children as they could believing that if some died, some will survive and cater for them when they became old, but if they have assurance that if the give birth to few and survive, they will not give birth to many children.

7)    THE USE AND NONE-USE OF CONTRACEPTIVE: Is also another factor to fertility, Contraceptive have the following components which are:

a)     Availability: this has to do with the medical personnel

b)    Acceptability: this has to do with the individual concerns, and

c)     Affordability: has to do with the government subsidizing the contraceptive so that everyone can afford it at a cheaper rate.

8)    SEX PREFERENCE: this is also another factor that affects fertility

SPECIFIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY

The Specific determinants varies from culture to culture, they includes:

1.           SEX PREFERENCE: Example, in a situation where a woman gave birth to a male child, the other wife will be giving birth anyhow to have a male child too in order to have security in the marriage and also to have a lion share in terms of wealth inheritance and so on. All culture favours male children more than the female children

2.           EARLY MARRIAGE: if a person marries early, there is high tendency that the woman will bear more children before menopause.

3.           Level of Development

4.           Literacy rate on education

5.           Culture

6.           Age at first marriage

7.           Woman's status

8.           Use and non use of contraceptives

9.           Sex Preference

10.      Government Policy and Law: Population Policy (1988 in Nigeria) (2004 in Nigeria). Policy can be anti Natalist or Pro-Natalist (Discourage/ Encourage)

11.      Level of Adolescence Sexuality

12.      Female illiteracy rate is very high in Nigeria.

13.      Peasant/agrarian Community.

14.      Cultural practices i.e. Almajiri system.

15.      Attitudes towards family planning Nigerians are stills influenced by religion and culture.

16.      Climatic condition also influence fertility rate.

17.      Blind Religiosity: blindly follows same path of the teaching and leaving some parts that do not favour your interest.

18.      Lack of empowerment on women especially economic empowerment.

DETERMINANT OF RECENT CHANGES IN FERTILITY

·        National Fertility Survey (1981-1982); this shows that Nigeria’s total fertility rate was 6.3.

·        Nigerian Demography and Health Survey (NDHS); 1990: This gave Nigeria a total fertility rate of 6.0.

·        Nigerian Population Census (1991): Shows that Nigeria has a total fertility rate of 5.1

·        NDHS again in 1999 gave Nigeria a total fertility rate of 5.2

·        NDHS (2003) gave Nigeria 5.7 fertility rate

·        NDHS (2008) still gave Nigeria 5.7 fertility rate.

·        NDHS (2013|latest) gave Nigeria 5.2 fertility rate.

FACTORS INFLUENCING FERTILITY IN NIGERIA

1.     Greater concentration of population in urban areas (329 urban centers in Nigeria and increase to 16950 in 1991) 10.7% of people living in urban centers in 1953 and increased to 35.7% in 1991.

2.     Changes in social structure particularly in kinship relationships; before now, extended systems were practice but as people are moving to the urban areas the family system changes from the extended to the nuclear system.

3.     Improvement in family planning services: the rate at which people plan their family have increased, before now, contraceptives were not available but now the use of contraceptives is known and practiced.

4.     Female education has increased.

FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE PERSISTENTLY HIGH FERTILITY IN AFRICA (ESPECIALLY SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA)

1.     Unique Cultural Heritage: beliefs, values, norms and traditions are very unique in Africa.

2.     Harsh Socio-economic condition which give people to have more children that will help them.

3.     Institutional structure and policies e.g. traditional structures, family structures i.e. extended, religious structures etc

MORTALITY

Mortality brings about change just as fertility; it refers to deaths that occur within a population. Population is not influenced by the number of children in a society but also the number of death of that society. If death is equal (=) to birth then there is zero population growth.

            The level of mortality varies from culture to culture, from gender to gender and from age to age; there are numerous social factors that have influence on when and how death occurs like education, race and ethnicity, sex, income, occupation, sex, social class, social status etc. example, ethnicity in India or in the eastern part of Nigeria Osu die earlier than the free born. Race and ethnicity has to be attached to a serious inequality, domination and so on.  (RACE is found in DEVELOPED SOCIETIES while ETHNICITY is found in DEVELOPING SOCIETIES)

            Mortality is higher in societies with low education; inequality in income is an ECONOMIC SUPER STRUCTURE that determines all other structures, it also has to do with assets accumulations, income define standard of living.

            Occupation is also another factor example; military men/women, fishing, driving as an occupation, mining etc are all determinants of deaths

CAUSES OF DEATH

There are three (3) major causes of death, namely;

1.     They are killed by diseases that can be transmitted from one person to another (infectious diseases)

2.     Degeneration: People dies because they degenerated; degeneration is the biological deteriorating of the body from chronic diseases, chronic diseases has been referred to as chronic illness, this is none-communicable diseases, it is an incurable diseases sometimes

CHRONIC DISEASES ASSOCIATED WITH DEGENERATION

a)     Heath Diseases

b)    Cancer

c)     Stroke

d)    Lung Diseases (Asthma)

e)     Diabetes

f)      Liver Diseases 

3.     People die because they are killed by products of Social and Economic environment: this deals with ways we put ourselves at risk at accidental deaths as a result in which we organized our lives and lives with the product of technology including routine killing of man by man (homicide) for reason beyond pure survival like religious crises, inter-tribal wars etc. and also an intentional killing of our selves (suicides) is also a product of social environment, life style is also a product and it includes tobacco use (smoking), illicit use of drugs, alcohol misuse, sexual misused, dietary abuse etc.

CHILDHOOD MORTALITY

This is measured by the proportion of children who are born alive but dies during the first four (4) years of life (also called under five mortality rate –U_5MR)

TYPES OF CHILDHOOD MORTALITY

1.     Peri-Natal Mortality: Refers to deaths including pregnancy lose occurring after seven (7) completed month of gestation. In order word, it refers to death within the first seven (7) days of life.

2.     Neo-Natal Mortality: This has to do with deaths occurring to the baby within the first one (1) month of life or the first four (4) weeks of life.

3.     Post Neo-Natal Mortality: the probability of dying within the first two (2) months to eleven (11) months of life.

4.     Infant Mortality: The probability of dying before the first birthday of the baby.

5.     Child Mortality: The probability of dying between first and fifth birthday (1st and 5th Birthday)

The above five (5) all together are called “U_5MR”.

FACTORS RESPONSIBLE FOR U_5MR

1.     Nutritional diet; eating carelessly

2.     Life style: there are pregnant women who smoke, takes alcohol and are drug addicted.

3.     Maternal Labour: example hard labour and women should not engaged themselves in hard labour 

4.     Wife battery: beating of wives etc.

5.     Long distance traveling.

6.     Maternal utilization of medical and health care services: This starts from anti-natal services, even post-natal (after given birth), there is need for a woman to go to check-up after the birth.

7.     Reproductive health history/status of the mother: the pregnant woman is sick, there is tendency that the child is also sick; this also includes the number of children the woman giving birth to, the larger the number of children she gave birth to affects the womb, it becomes weak.

8.     Inter pregnancy interval: U.N recommends 2years interval.

9.     Age of mother (under age; age at first child bearing): UN recommends that the minimum age to give birth is 18 years.

10.                        Maternal Education: below is the current statistics of maternal education and how it affects childhood-mortality.

ACCORDING NDHS 2014, Educational attainment is associated with lower levels infants and childhood mortality. Children born to mothers with no education have the highest U_5MR in Nigeria. The rate declines as the Mothers education increases; 68 deaths per 1000 birth for children whose mother has more than secondary education but 208 deaths for illiterate mother. The risk is 148% of children of illiterate mothers.

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTOR AFFECTING MORTALITY

1.     SEX OF THE CHILD: it is the higher among male children compared to females because male does not have some immunity like the female children have. They are more vulnerable to mortality than females.

2.     MULTIPLE BIRTH: i.e. twins, triplets, quadruplet etc. the more babies in the womb the tendency of the children to be tiny and also whatever the mother eats, it is shared among them which results to lose of weight of the children.

3.     BIRTH ORDER: When there is high birth order, mortality is higher than in low birth order. Infant mortality is higher at 1st birth (mothers are new) and at 7th birth and above mortality becomes higher again, high birth order is where the mother given birth to 14 children or above.

4.     BIRTH INTERVAL: what is the interval of the children and so on.

5.     Age of first marriage.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS

1.     EDUCATION: general level of the parents both husband and wife.

2.     PHYSICAL HOUSEHOLD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION: what type of house do you live; i.e. mud house, etc. what is the source of water i.e. open well, closed well, or pipe borne water, what do you cook with, i.e. firewood, whereby a mother is cooking and smoke is affecting the baby. What is the ventilation of the house?

3.     HIGH RISK FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR: accounts for higher rate of childhood mortality; when children are born at less than 2years interval, also born by an under 18years or born from too old mothers.

MATERNAL MORTALITY/MORBIDITY

Maternal mortality refers to the death of a woman while pregnant or within 42days of termination of pregnancy from any cause related to or aggravated compound (become worse) by the pregnancy or its management but not from accidental or incidental causes. The death most be related to pregnancy.

            Maternal mortality includes deaths resulting from complication of pregnancy or child bearing as well as death due to complication from spontaneous or induced abortion.

           

MATERNAL MORBIDITY:

This is none-fatal diseases and illness, injuries and disabilities associated with pregnancy and child birth, illness include RBF.

            Maternal rate is very high in Africa between 600,000 and 1,000,000 women dies each year from childbirth related issue (only 1% happened in developed societies, while the remaining 99% in developing countries).

FACTORS RESPONSIBLE FOR MATERNAL MORTALITY

1)    MODERN HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION: During pregnancy, during delivery and after the child is born. its includes the following;

a.     Anti-natal care.

b.     Skilled assistance during delivery.

c.      Post-natal care (6 weeks after birth).

2)    SOCIO-CULTURAL FACTORS: These includes beliefs and values, it includes the status of women in Nigeria, and some several practices during pregnancy. Social status of women in Nigeria is also socio-cultural factors.

3)    Socio-economic and health status of the family.

4)    Attitudinal factors also.

MIGRATION

            A form of spatial mobility from one place to another and it involve permanent or semi-permanent change of residence.

            A geographic movement of people across specific boundaries for the purposes of establishing permanent or semi-permanent residents; it involves a change of residence and across a defined geographical boundary.

FEATURES OF MIGRATION

        i.            The movement mostly affects a defined geo boundaries it must involve a crossing of defined geographical boundary.

      ii.            The movement must involve change in residence (relocated).

NOTE: NOMADS (NOMADIC): These are not migrants, they constantly change their residences but it is hardly permanent change.

TYPES OF MIGRATION

1)    Migrants are usually classified as whether they cross political boundary and if so, what type of boundary, village line, state line etc.

2)    Migrants are also categorized according to migration point. There are two migration point namely; point of origin and point of destination. The major distinction is simply there are two categories i.e. Internal and External Migration/International.

INTERNAL MIGRATION is residential mobility from one unit to another within the same country. It involves permanent change of resident within national boundaries. Example, relocate from one village, city, local government, town, state to another. The movement revolves around within the same country. Within internal migration we have the following;

a.     In-migration. and

b.     Out-migration.

In-migration is whereby if you are coming from other state to Kaduna to Kaduna, a person is in-migrant while the state he left is out-migrant.

Types of Interval Migration

It can be differentiated further as follows;

1)    Rural-urban migration.

2)    Urban-rural migration.

3)    Rural-rural Migration; common among farmers looking for a fertile land.

4)    Urban-urban migration.

EXTERNAL MIGRATION/INTERNATIONAL

Is residential mobility from one country to another, it is a movement across international boundaries or boarders. There are two terms associated with external migration namely;

a.     Immigration: giving birth to immigrants.

b.     Emigration: giving birth to emigrants.

According to U.N Long term immigrant includes all person who come to a country during a year and whose stay will last for more than one year.

Migration across international boundaries can be voluntary or in-voluntary (forced migration) e.g. slave trade, disasters, conquer, war etc. can forced someone or as a result of human trafficking.

Inter-migration can be further differentiated as legal immigrant or illegal (undocumented) immigrants. It can also be refugees because of war and Asylees because of political prosecution i.e. racial prosecution, also on the basis of nationality or on the basis of ethnicity in the national level or member of a particular group i.e. Boko Haram, cult or base on public opinion (when your opinion is radical like Karl Marx). The above are criteria which a person can apply for asylum according to U.N.

            An Asylee apply when such a person is already in that country but a refugee applies when he is in his own country.

REASONS WHY PEOPLE MIGRATES

1)    The need to desire certain needs: The action is usually motivated by desire to satisfy needs.

2)    The need to avoid discomfort or pain

PUSH-PULL THEORY OF MIGRATION

They argued that there are certain factors, circumstances within the point of origin capable of pushing people out of that environment and also there are some situations, factors or circumstances that is attracting a person to that area; push facts are factors in the point of origin while pull factors are factors at the point of destination.

Push factors are famine, war, unemployment, epidemics, decline in natural resources, oppression, political prosecution, discrimination treatments etc. are all push factors; alienation is also a push factor where people don't want to associate with you. While the pull factors includes superior opportunity for employment (has to do with the ability of an economic system to absorb your skills, experience etc), or opportunity to earn a larger income; opportunity to obtained desired special education or training; preferable and living condition is also a pull factor existence of social amenities, social ties (bonds between you and your friends; when your friend move and you also want to join him).

SELECTIVITY OF MIGRATION

Migration is selective i.e. Not everyone migrate; only a selected portion of the population migrate. The propensity to migrate at certain age of life is important.

Selecting Factors

1)    Age: certain age brackets migrates more than others i.e.(between the age of 18-35years).

2)    Gender: Migration is gender selective; males are more likely to migrate than females.

3)    Marital Status: the singles are more likely to migrate than the married. The single, widowed, divorce has the high migration rate.

CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION

Is migration a blessing or curse or both? Migration has consequences on the following point:

1)    The point of origin. and

2)    At the Point Destination.

AT A POINT OF ORIGIN

It lead to development towards remittances; some migrants send money to the village to destroy the hurts and build new houses or send money to help in education of their brothers and sisters which cannot be possible if they were in the village, as such it leads to development and can be a bless.

            Also, it can be a problem; it can leads to brain drain, when the intelligent people are moving out, it can lead to economic, social and intellectual stagnation of that area; It can leads to draught (food insecurity) when everybody especially the youth left the area and farming is left to the elderly who are not strong enough.

TO THE POINT OF DESTINATION

Migration can lead to explosion of population of the area; there is bound to be congestion in the point of destination and it comes with its attendant consequences like housing problems (destitution)

            There is also the issue of social relationship; when there are too many people, relationships will be contractual in nature as against the rural pattern and also marriages will be contractual.

            Crime rate is found to be high, conflict exists and there is problem of cultural infiltration. There is also the issue of pollution at the point of destination i.e. air pollution from industries, cars, water pollution, toxic waste can be dump carelessly anywhere in the cities.

            The problem of deforestation also exist where there are too many people and they need to cook, they cut trees recklessly any how making firewood, the area will no longer be green threatening the ozone layer of the area. Also, there is high pressure on health facilities at the point of destination.