POPULATION PROJECTIONS

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

What is Population Projection?

            Population Projection refers to a number of people who will comprises the population of an area at some future point in time according to clearly stated demographic assumptions about the demographic variables.

Population Projection is not synonymous to prediction, Population Projection is a predicated on population variables particularly fertility, mortality and migration e.g. what is the current fertility regime and structure?

Population Projection is intended to answer the question “what if?” Population Projection need not even realistic in some extreme cases. The purpose of projecting population is not excessively or primarily makes accurate prediction rather, it is to identify and check the likely effects of influences and contingencies that will determine future population size. However, most projections tries to be realistic, the assumptions generally reflects what appears to be reasonable at a given point in time.

Population rise and fall because of a shift in fertility, mortality and/or migration; assumptions are made about the future level of such demographic behaviour. The person making the assumption must be clear about the intent of the effort.