PERSPECTIVES IN DEMOGRAPHY
Introduction
Population and its dynamics are very critical in understanding social
changes in all societies. Population induces changes are very far reaching
effects on:
a)
Economic development.
b)
Peace and comfort of society.
c)
Socio-economic well-being of a society.
There is a change, and it is very rapid and the change is not evenly
felt in the society. NOTE; it took hundred and thousand years for
the world to reach one billion; it took 100years to reach 2billion and also it
took... etc
The problem is
not that the population is growing rapidly but also the dynamics within
countries i.e. developed and undeveloped countries example in some countries in
Western Europe are afraid that their population is decreasing while others are
increasing rapidly. In 1950 half of the 10th most populous countries
were industrialized countries but in 2050, demographer predicts that USA will
be the only most populous country in the industrialized society. Also in [1950]
over 28% of the world's population lived in America and Europe, but today 16%of
the world population and by 2050 it will be 12%. The implication is that by 2050, 88% will be
in developing countries which have nothing compared with developed countries
where they will have only 12% of the population in view of the above
demographer developed theories to explain this problem;
1.
Demographic Transition Theory.
2.
Malthusian Perspectives.
3.
Marxist Perspective.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
This is a term that was first used by warren S. Thompson (1929) and
later on by Frank W. Notestein 1945. They use it to refer to historical process
of change which account to the trends in births, deaths, and population growth
that occurred in today's industrialized societies especially European
societies. This process of demographic change began on the most part of 18th
century.
Demographic Transition is not a law of population growth that is,
shouldn’t be used as a law of population growth but as a generalized
description of the evolutionary process. In other word, it is a theory which is
attempted to specify general laws for human population change in size and
structures during industrialization.
Demographic
Transition Theory is frequently accepted as a useful tool of describing the
demographic history of a country. the Theory postulates a particular pattern of
Demographic change from a high fertility and high mortality, to a low fertility
and low mortality when a society process from a largely rural, agrarian and
illiterate society to a dominant urban, industrialized, literate and modern
society.
The Demographic
Transition as a theoretical model is used typical to describe a state of major
changes in births and death rates that have occurred almost completely in urban
industrialized nations in the last 200years. It is typically demonstrated
through a demographic transition model. The theory is based on an
interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by an American
demographer Warren S. Thompson (1887-1973). Thompson observes changes or
transitions in births and death rates in industrialized societies over the
previous 200years and developed a framework for the model (changes observes).
Demographers use the term Demographic Transition to describe the changes in
birth rate and death rates during stages of a country's development resulting
in new patterns of vital statistics.
Demographic
Transition Theory describes the evolution of a country from a stage of high
birth rate and high death rate through a stage of high birth rate and low death
rate to a stage of low birth rate and low death rate.
Demographic
Transition Theory is typically viewed as a 3 stage process;
1.
That the decline of mortality comes first before
the decline in fertility.
2.
That the fertility eventually declines to match
mortality.
3.
That socio-economic transformation of a society
takes place simultaneously with its demographic transformation.
Demographic
transition theory is characterized by configures transition stages; the
transition from high birth rates and death rates to low rates; that can be
divided in 3stages, however, some scholars have divided it into 4 or 5 stages
as follows:
1.
Pre-transition Stage: characterized by high
and fluctuating births and death rates with little population growth.
2.
Transition Stage: characterized by high birth
rates with rapid population growth [stage of many developing countries].
3.
Post-transition Stage: characterized
by low birth and death rate with slow population growth (stages of developed
countries).
4.
Stabilization Stage: characterized by birth
and death both decline appreciably loading to zero stage (stage of highly
industrialized societies).
STAGE
1:
This
stage conforms to pre-industrial, agricultural era and it is regarded as the
pre-transitional stage in the history of societies both birth rate and death
rates were high. The birth rate is high because children were value as sources
of labour and also due to lack of effective birth control measures.
While
death rates is high because of low standard of living and lack of medical
facility to stems the spread of diseases. Other factors are counted as high
fertility was early marriages and low cost of child upbringing while the
prevalence of epidermis and natural disaster also kept mortality high. Birth
and death rate at this stage were almost uniform leading relatively to stable
population.
STAGE 2:
This
stage is regarded as the transitional stage. As societies enters stage two (2)
which coincided with the unset of the industrial era, improve medical
techniques, sanitations, increased of food production all these lead to reduction
of death rates, this is the stage of industrial revolution (18thcentury).
However,
desire for children, reduction of infant mortality and from high to medium
fertility rate, resulted in significant population growth. This stage commenced
in Europe during agricultural revolution of the 18thcentury. The
sources reports that in the 20thcentury the falls in death rates in
the developing countries tended to be substantially faster. Countries in this
transition stage include; Yemen, Afghanistan, Palestinian territories,
sub-Saharan African countries and lots more are suddenly in stage
"2".
STAGE 3:
This is
the post-transitional stage, societies have fully developed industrial economy,
the standard of living is high and children are no longer needed as workers for
building family incomes, during this stage; birth rates falls due to increased
use of effective birth control measures and high standard of living. The death
rates remain low (at this stage, there is class consciousness; people are
thinking of high cost of living i.e. people want to become something and as
such, they divert their attention (mind) from producing children to class
aspiration).
Infant
and child mortality decline, making couples confident that fewer could suffice
to care for them in old age, the industrial economy means that children are not
longer needed for economic activities, these coupled with high contraceptive
prevalence that keeps fertility low. On the other hand, rapid advances in
medical technology, improved sanitary conditions, preventive measures against
killer diseases and reduced mortality low. The low birth and death produced a stable
population in which growth occurs slowly. according to some authors, some stage
"3" countries may even experienced zero population growth that is the
point at which nearly equal birth and death rates produce a broad rate of zero;
i.e. Germany, Italy etc.
STAGE 4:
This is
also known as stabilization stage, it occurs where both birth and death rates
are low leading to a total population which is low and stable. Death rates are
low because of so many reasons primarily, lower rate of diseases and higher
production of food. The birth rate is low because many people are opportune to
choose if they want children which are made possible by improvement in
contraception or women getting more independent and work opportunities. During
stage "4" population growth stabilizes as birth rates falls in the
line with death rates. In some cases birth rates may even drop below the
replacement level resulting in shrinking population; e.g. most countries in
Europe, Canada, Latin American countries, china, Thailand etc. are in stage
"4".
STAGE 5:
Some
people argued that there is stage "5". This is the stage at which
both death and birth rates decline seriously
MALTHUSIAN THEORY
MALTHUSIAN belongs to anti-natalism or
anti-natalist theory. According to Malthus, there is need for moral constraint
in order to check population. This means that one must restrain himself from
women. One has to have all the essentials need for life before getting married.
Malthus
was against the welfare system where if a person cannot take good care of his
family. He says the poor should not be helped; let them work hard; they must
learn to be not poor.
Malthus
belief that a natural consequence of population growth was poverty, since the
increase in food supply cannot contained with the natural urge to reproduce. He
contended the urge to reproduce always forces population pressure to precede
the demand for labour. Thus, over population will forced wages down to the
point where people could not afford to marry and raised a family at such low
wages with a surplus of labour and the need for each person to work just to
earn a subsistence wage, cultivators could employ more labour, put more acres
of land into population and thus, increase the means of subsistence. Malthus
belief that this circle of increased food resources, leading to population
growth, leading to too many people for available resources, leading them back
to poverty was part of natural law of population. Each increase in food supply
only means that eventually, more people could live in poverty. Malthus
essentially blame poverty on the poor themselves because he belief that most
human creators were too "inert"
too "sluggish"
and "averse"
for labour, to try to harness the urge to reproduce and avoid the increase in
number that will lead back to poverty whenever more resources were available.
However,
according to Malthus, within that poverty though, is the STIMULUS FOR ACTION that
can lift people out of misery. If people remain poor, it is their own fault for
not trying to do something about it. For that reason, Malthus was opposed to
the ''ENGLISH POOR
LAW'' (i.e. welfare benefits for the poor) because he felt that
they (the Laws) would actually serve to perpetuate
miserly, they permitted poor people to be supported by others and thus not feel
that great pain, the avoidance of which might lead to birth prevention. Malthus
argues that if every man had to provide for his own children, he would be more
prudent about getting marriage and raising a family.
NOTE: "within poverty, there is
stimulus for action; if one is wise enough. Poverty has a capacity to make you
think when you see others enjoying wealth. He said that the street made lot of
people rich and lots others criminals e.g. 50cent was a product of the street;
poverty has a way of making people creative. For the above reason, he concludes
that the poor were responsible for their own poverty because even within
poverty, there is stimulus to motivate them to work hard but they refused.
However,
to Malthus, the only acceptable means of preventing a birth was to exercise "MORAL RESTRAINT"
which is to postpone marriages, remained "Chaste"
in a mean time until a man feels secure that, should he have a large family?
His outmost exertions
(struggle\sweat) can save them from "rags" and "squalid'' poverty, and their consequent
degradation in the community; his recommendations are:
1.
Post-pone Marriage.
2.
Remain Chaste.
3.
Until secure enough to raised a
family.
Any other means of birth control including contraception,
either before or after marriage, abortion infanticide (killing of infants), or
any other improper means according to Malthus was viewed as ''VICE'' that would
lower the dignity of human nature.
Moral
restraints were a very important point to Malthus because he belief that, if
people were allowed to prevents birth by improper means (prostitution, contraception,
abortions etc), they will expand the energies in ways that are not economically
productive. Borrowing from John Locke, Malthus argued that ''the endeavor to avoid pain rather than to pursue pleasure is the
great stimulus for action in life". Pleasure will not stimulate
activity until its absent is defined in being painful.
Malthus
suggested that a well educated, rational person will perceive in advance, the
pain in having hungry children or being in debt and would post-pond marriage
and sexual-intercourse until he was sure that he could avoid that pain. If that
motivation existed and the percentage check is operating, than the miserable
consequence of population growth could be avoided.
CRITICISMS
There are three major criticisms against Malthus, these
are:
1.
Food production could not keep up
with the population growth: Because the advent of technology and mechanized
farming, Malthus does not foresee the coming of the mechanized farming where
the food production will be higher than the population, he only use the local
implements of production, shifting cultivation and so on
2.
The conclusion that poverty was an
inevitable result of population growth and;
3.
Believe that moral restraints were
the only acceptable preventive check.
MARXIST DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE
Marxist theory of population is also commonly known as the Socialist Theory
of population. The theory is drive from the work of Karl Marx and his
collaborator or friend "Frederic Engels".
Marx developed his
theory primarily in response to Malthus views in population. However, his ideas
are extended to encompass analysis of the relationship between population and capitalism.
Marx and Engels have no issues with preventing birth; never the less, there
were skeptical about Malthus’s postulate that population growth would outstrip
food production. On the contrary, they viewed human activity as the product of
a particular social and economic environment.
The basic Marxist
perspective is that each society at a point in history has its own laws of
population that determines the consequences of population growth. For
capitalism, the consequences are over population and poverty while for
socialism, population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side
effect.
Marx rejected as baseless
the Malthusian that population growth leads to poverty instead that capitalism
with its exploitative institutions and its apparatus was responsible for human
suffering and poverty. Marx and Engels views large population as a factor for
increased productivity since every worker produce more than his/her immediate
needs. By implication, the large amount of surpluses created could lead to
immerse wealth if properly and equitably disposed or distributed. They also opined
that, capitalism works by using labour of the working class to earn profits or
capital to buy machines that will replace the laborers. This means that poor
were not poor because they over ran the food supply but capitalists had first
taken away part of their wages and then taken away their jobs and replace them
with machines.
Thus, the
consequences of population as discussed by Malthus were actually the
consequences of capitalism.
Over population in
capitalist society was a result of bourgeoisie’s desire for a large labour
force that will keep wages low via competition for jobs as well as compel
workers to be excessively productive to keep their Jobs. To Marx then, the solution
to the problem of population is radical overthrow of capitalism and equitable
re-organization of society on socialist principles. they belief that a growing
population bears the seed of destruction of capitalism because the massive
unemployment that accompanies it would lead to discontent, disaffection,
agitations, restiveness and eventually revolution.
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